It’s shaping up to be another light week on the data front, but there are still a few notable releases to watch. Thursday brings the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing PMI, which is not usually a major focus, but given the government shutdown, it may carry more weight than usual.

Then on Friday we’ll get the preliminary Markit PMIs for October. We typically take preliminary numbers with a grain of salt, but again, under current conditions, they could prove informative. Friday also delivers September’s CPI. This is one data point authorized for release despite the shutdown, and it’s likely to be a market mover. Stay tuned.

The Macro Week In Review

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The Macro Week Ahead

🎢 Return Of The Headline Whipsaw

Markets have been on another roller coaster. Two weeks ago, stocks sold off sharply as trade tensions with China intensified. By Monday, sentiment reversed after the President softened his tone, and AI-driven enthusiasm pushed tech stocks higher. By week’s end, the major indices had gained nearly 2%.

Beneath the surface, though, cracks are forming. A large regional bank disclosed losses tied to commercial and industrial loans following several auto-related bankruptcies in September. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon added to the unease, warning that, “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more.”

The regional banking index ($KRE) has dropped 10.7% over the past month, while European and Japanese banks have held up far better. Gold’s rally, GLD is up nearly 16% in October, underscores the market’s risk-off tone. Volatility like this is typical following a trough in the business cycle, as employment weakens and consumers come under strain.

What makes today’s backdrop different from the 2023 SVB and First Republic turmoil is monetary policy. Then, the Fed was still hiking aggressively. Now, investors have roughly 125 basis points of rate cuts already in the pipeline, and markets are pricing in another 25-bps reduction in October. In fact, about 90% of global GDP has seen rate cuts in the past year.

That broad global policy easing matters. It means financial conditions should support leading economic indicators in the medium term. Still, U.S. inflation remains the wild card, especially with the government shutdown halting most data releases. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish September CPI on Friday, October 24 at 8:30 am to ensure Social Security adjustments proceed, but no other data will be released until the shutdown ends.

📆 The Week Ahead

With the shutdown still in effect, the data calendar is sparse but not empty. Monday brings The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) at 10:00 am. This ten-component index draws from both private and public sources, including the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), which we reference weekly, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. It also incorporates government data such as Capital Goods Orders and Initial Claims, which have been on hold and may be revised once released.

Thursday, we’ll get the Kansas City Fed’s October Manufacturing Index. Regional PMIs have been mixed with New York’s Empire survey upbeat, Philadelphia’s weaker, but all have shown stubborn inflation pressures in the “prices paid” components, particularly after the latest round of tariffs.

That sets the stage for Friday’s CPI report, where the headline rate is expected to rise to 3.1% in September from 2.9% in August. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) is also projected at 3.1%. Historically, regional “prices paid” data lead CPI trends, hinting we could be on the cusp of renewed inflation momentum.

With the Fed meeting on October 29 and markets nearly unanimous on another rate cut, an upside surprise in inflation could complicate the outlook. If the Fed attributes higher prices to tariff effects, it has signaled it will not respond with tighter policy. But if the pickup stems from wages or service-sector pressures, forces outside one-off tariffs, the response could turn hawkish fast.

Macro Job Board

Investment Associate, Global Macro @ Dalio Family Office (New York)

This position will serve on the Global Macro Team. Collaborating closely with Mr. Dalio on key initiatives, this small team conducts cutting edge macroeconomic and markets research. The research directly impacts the DFO’s investments, and much of it is published externally and read by the top policymakers and thinkers globally.

Senior Macro Strategist @ Barclays (New York)

In this role, you will serve as the sole G10 FX strategist based in our NYC office, working in close collaboration with your counterparts in the UK. You will monitor and review global macroeconomic developments, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, and translating these insights into actionable FX strategies.

2026 Summer Macro Analyst Intern @ Susquehanna (Philadelphia) 

You will be partnered with our senior analysts and traders to assist in identifying investment opportunities in the equity, index, and options markets. You will learn to perform in-depth company analysis around future catalyst events and provide real-time opinions on breaking news throughout the trading day.

What We Read This Weekend

💥 Why Wall Street Is Fearful Of More Lending Blow-Ups

📉 Griffin Says GenAI Fails To Help Hedge Funds Beat Markets

🤖 Four Key Macro Implications From AI Adoption