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- Flying Blind Amidst The Government Shutdown
Flying Blind Amidst The Government Shutdown
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
The Macro Institute
October 06, 2025
In partnership with
This is an odd Macro Monday given that most government data releases are on hold due to the government shutdown.
We will see the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey come Friday. Releases are sparse beyond that.
We know that labor markets are slowing, and the ADP figures released last week argue that this trend is still very much in place. We also know that these are NOT your typical labor markets. Surely, the impact of unauthorized workers in recent years has had a large influence, but even more important are the broader demographic trends in play (i.e., the Baby Boomers starting to retire in the 2010s).
This cycle saw one of the smallest historical increases in the unemployment rate given how weak leading economic indicators were. Until recently, we had more job openings than available workers, which is something that hasn’t happened in over 50 years. It might be time to edit the textbook on labor markets and come up with a new “normal”.
The Macro Week In Review
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The Macro Week Ahead
🙈 Flying Blind
The government shutdown and the related suspension of economic data releases comes at a critical point in the business cycle. Investors rely heavily on the monthly payrolls and unemployment data out on the first Friday of the month from the BLS.
Without government data, our sources are independent providers such as the NFIB, the Conference Board, and the Institute for Supply Chain Management. This is happening at a time when the degree of deterioration in the labor market is highly uncertain.
ADP’s monthly jobs figure is a close substitute for payrolls. U.S. private employment in September clocked a large downside surprise of 32,000 jobs. This was partially due to a downward revision of 43,000 jobs.
ISM employment data was more encouraging, with both the manufacturing and services series ticking higher from cycle lows. This is important because ISM data is often a leading indicator of employment trends. It suggests the slowdown in labor markets may soon reach a bottom. In practice, this means the bad news is largely priced in, and markets should begin to look ahead to improvements in employment. However, we’re not there quite yet, so now we must wait for both a resolution to the shutdown and the release of key data series.
📆 The Week Ahead
Regardless of the shutdown, this week’s calendar offers little in the way of major economic data. Monday is quiet, and Tuesday’s Trade Balance report from the U.S. Census Bureau likely won’t be published.
The Fed, however, is still on the clock. It releases the Consumer Credit report on Tuesday. This is data worth watching given that credit drives U.S. spending trends and tends to follow ebbs and flows in the business cycle. Earlier this year, this monthly series briefly slipped into negative territory, a signal that usually signals recession. Recent readings have stabilized, and our forecast suggests credit should continue to improve, albeit slowly, in the near term.
The Fed will also be active on the speaking circuit this week. Vice Chairman Bowman and Governor Miran appear on Tuesday, followed by Governor Barr on Wednesday. Chairman Powell speaks Thursday at the Community Bank Conference in Washington. Normally these remarks don’t draw a lot of attention, but given the fog created by the suspension of economic data, we will be listening more closely for signals on how policy will be conducted in this unusual environment.
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