The past few weeks have seen a return to optimism in financial markets. Softer inflation readings have allowed Fed speakers to, for the first time in awhile, publicly discuss the possibility of interest rate cuts as soon as the first half of next year. The last time we heard from the Fed, it was still projecting to hike rates once more in 2023 and keep them relatively high in 2024. As the graph above shows, the Fed tends to get what it wants, dragging investors in futures markets to ultimately price in its preferred interest rate path. But that’s no longer happening. It suggests that either the Fed will push back at this month’s meeting, potentially inflicting pain on equity and bond markets alike, or that we’re about to get a new, more dovish forecast. As always, we shall see.

The Macro Week In Review

The Macro Week Ahead

Three Things We Read This Weekend