If you’re looking for a clear directional message in incoming economic data, last week probably was not your idea of a good time. At the start of the week, inflation delivered an upside surprise, but by the end of the week investors were more focused on weakening retail sales and industrial production growth. February Regional PMIs staged a 180-degree turn from their January plunge, doing their part to muddy the waters. We’re focusing this week on the U.S. consumer because of its importance to U.S. economic growth. Retail sales growth has been barely positive over the past year, and its rate of decline is tracking right where we would have predicted based on the changes in interest rates since the start of 2022. Say it with us… Patterns in rates eventually become patterns in data.

The Macro Week In Review

What We Read This Weekend

Macro Summits Professional Education

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