Last week felt like it set us back further from the start of the Fed easing cycle, but also perhaps, a few steps closer to the cyclical downturn we have been expecting. Let’s start with consumer price inflation, which came in higher than expected, thanks to larger-than-expected increases in a handful of categories such as used cars and shelter. But should that be a cause of concern for the Fed as it determines the proper timing for its first rate cut? Shelter inflation is a lagging indicator, in part due to how it’s calculated. Private measures of new leases on rental properties have been in disinflation or outright deflation for about a year, and the CPI for Rent is on schedule to slow further, as our chart of the week shows well. Outside of Shelter, U.S. inflation has been less than 2% over the past year. If the Fed allows itself to be held hostage by a slow grind lower in rent inflation and waits too long to ease policy, it will be inviting an even worse downturn in markets and the economy. Core retail sales registered a goose egg in February after dropping in January, indicating that slowing growth will soon overtake above-target inflation as the primary economic concern.

The Macro Week In Review

Macro Job Board

Associate, Global Macro Investment Team @ Blackstone (New York)

The Associate will support the Global Macro team in its mission to deliver investments with high absolute returns in an uncorrelated and liquid manner. Global Macro investments are executed through allocations to third-party hedge funds and opportunistic direct investments.

Global Macro PM (Discretionary) @ Wellington Management (Boston)

This individual will be responsible for managing a significant alpha sleeve consistent with their stated philosophy and process, and within their area of specialization. Their alpha target will be available across the wider platform for incorporation in multiple client mandates, including macro funds and Multi Strat hedge funds.

VP, Training and Development @ Jefferies (New York)

Jefferies is seeking a dedicated Training and Development professional to join its Human Resources team. In this role you would be an integral part of their Training and Development team, contributing to a culture that values continuous learning, growth, and well-being.

What We Read This Weekend

Macro Summits Professional Education

For more information and to register for one of our events, please visit:

https://macrospecialistdesignation.com/macro-summits/