U.S. economic data is coming in weaker than expected, which is having an impact on Fed policy and equity market leadership. Last week, we were treated to a trio of bad U.S. reports on retail sales, housing starts, and industrial production. All came in lower than expected for April and had their March numbers revised lower. For now, investors seem to be fine with the softer tone of the data, as they likely confirm the Fed’s first interest rate cut will arrive sometime this summer. But by the time economic data turns worse, as it’s been doing, it’s usually too late for interest rate cuts to have much of an effect. We note with interest the defensive leadership in the market of late, particularly the performance of Utilities and Consumer Staples in the wake of this run of disappointing data releases. Stock indexes may be at all-time highs, but the rally has a decidedly risk-off tone to it. This has historically been a sign that the good times are about to come to an end.

The Macro Week In Review

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