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- Macro Monday: Surprise! The Economy Is Getting Weaker!
Macro Monday: Surprise! The Economy Is Getting Weaker!
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
U.S. economic data is coming in weaker than expected, which is having an impact on Fed policy and equity market leadership. Last week, we were treated to a trio of bad U.S. reports on retail sales, housing starts, and industrial production. All came in lower than expected for April and had their March numbers revised lower. For now, investors seem to be fine with the softer tone of the data, as they likely confirm the Fed’s first interest rate cut will arrive sometime this summer. But by the time economic data turns worse, as it’s been doing, it’s usually too late for interest rate cuts to have much of an effect. We note with interest the defensive leadership in the market of late, particularly the performance of Utilities and Consumer Staples in the wake of this run of disappointing data releases. Stock indexes may be at all-time highs, but the rally has a decidedly risk-off tone to it. This has historically been a sign that the good times are about to come to an end.
The Macro Week In Review
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Top Tweets From The Macro Institute
We recently sent out a voice blast to our research clients where we outlined some of the specific things we look for when the stock market is peaking.
See some of the highlights below!
Contact [email protected] to learn how you can get access to our research.
— The Macro Institute (@MacroInstitute)
5:49 PM • May 14, 2024
This chart gives perspective on delinquency trends. The first thing that stands out is that both credit card and auto loan delinquency look eerily like they did in the ramp up to the GFC?! Second, student loan delinquency ... whoa?!?
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
12:45 PM • May 15, 2024
Our CEO Katherine Krantz recently spoke with @FAMagazine to discuss the importance of Financial Advisors and Analysts considering lead times when analyzing economic data.
Check out the article here:
— The Macro Institute (@MacroInstitute)
5:03 PM • May 15, 2024
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