Last week provided a lot of U.S. labor market data, most of which showed a continued gradual softening of conditions and a return to something resembling balance between workers and employers. One of the ways we can measure this is through something called the Beveridge Curve, which plots the unemployment rate against the job openings rate. Anyone who has taken Economics 101 knows the difference between a shift ALONG a curve and a shift up or down IN a curve. For a while in the early 2020s, it looked like the number of job openings would simply remain higher in comparison to the level of unemployment. This would have meant that a fall in openings would have to have come with a large increase in unemployment. But that hasn’t happened. Instead, job openings have plunged with only a small increase in joblessness. The yellow dot on this graph represents the labor market as of April. Unemployment is 0.5% off its low, but its relationship to job openings is fully consistent with the Beveridge curve of the 2010s. That’s been a good thing, but even a normalization to the environment of the previous decade implies that unemployment will rise from here as job openings decline.

The Macro Week In Review

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