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Macro Monday: Navigating The Multi-Family Slowdown
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
The Macro Institute
June 24, 2024
Most of the economic data disappointed last week. This is especially true for housing related series. Housing Starts and Building Permits both disappointed and home sales declined again in May. While housing is a small share of the U.S. economy (so small most econ textbooks don't even cover it!), it is nevertheless a critical part of the business cycle, a point made by UCLA economics professor Ed Leamer in his seminal paper "Housing Is The Business Cycle".
The most interesting piece of housing data came from multi-family construction, which until now, has been seen as the hottest part of the housing industry. Despite this, multi-family permits moved lower again in May and multi-family starts are now hovering near levels last seen at the depths of the pandemic?! This has a host of implications ranging from what this means for the economy and possibly even rent inflation. Time will tell, but these are key series to monitor at this stage.
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The idea that we can repeat the soft landing of the mid-1990s is a very common belief. It was also a common comparison in 2000 and 2007. This does not mean that it can’t happen, but it does highlight the behavioral forces at play that make investors hope for a good outcome.
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