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Macro Monday: Economic Weakness Ahead?
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
The Macro Institute
July 01, 2024
This week is chock full of key data releases despite the July 4th holiday. We will get the ISM Index for June this morning at 10am and it is a tad more important than usual this month considering the collapse in the New Orders component in April and May. As the clip chart on the right above reveals, the spread between the New Orders and the Inventories component gives a heads up on where the overall Index might be headed. It suggests weakness ahead.
The ISM is one of the earliest leading indicators in the U.S. since it gives us a read on the early part of the supply chain. It often helps inform on trends in other LEIs like Initial Jobless Claims. Claims will be released this Wednesday. In similar fashion, the payroll report for June will be released on Friday morning. Lots to ponder this week despite the holiday. Happy July 4th everyone.
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Top Tweets From The Macro Institute
Consumer sentiment was a tad weaker last month across the political spectrum. I have no idea what the net implications are for the elections, but I have to think independents feeling less good about things is not a great development for a party trying to hold on the White House?
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
1:28 PM • Jun 26, 2024
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— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
1:26 PM • Jun 26, 2024
A lot has been said about how long the yield curve has been inverted. It's been inverted for such a long time because labor markets have been tight for a long time. It'll stay inverted until signs of a slowdown are evident in labor markets and the Fed starts to consider easing.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
2:43 PM • Jun 25, 2024
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