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- Macro Monday: Here Comes The Sahm Rule?!
Macro Monday: Here Comes The Sahm Rule?!
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
The Macro Institute
July 08, 2024
The June employment report officially beat consensus when it was released on Friday. However, there were a lot of other important stats from that report. First, revisions to employment in prior months were quite significant ... and to the downside. Second, the share of government jobs as a share of payrolls increased again. Lastly, the uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.1% is perhaps the biggest story. Two more months with a 0.1% uptick in the unemployment rate would trigger the famous "Sahm Rule", which would then argue that a recession is very likely. Time will tell what the future holds, but a trigger of the Sahm Rule would inevitably change the conversation at the Fed and all but guarantee rate cuts this fall.
The Macro Week In Review
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Top Tweets From The Macro Institute
One of the mysteries I’ve been pondering for the last week. What is driving the Yen?? Normally interest rate differentials help explain currency trends among the major economies BUT not always. There are times when currencies diverge from interest rates for one reason or another.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
8:43 PM • Jul 1, 2024
Economic uncertainty has made mastering macro the key to investment success.
The Macro Specialist Designation (M²SD) connects the influence of macro forces to financial markets, stock selection, and portfolio design.
See the bigger picture.
Register: macrospecialistdesignation.com/my-account/
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
1:26 PM • Jun 26, 2024
Welcome to the second half of 2024! The first half, Q2 specifically, certainly had its share of surprises for investors.
The most interesting aspect of markets in Q2 was the underperformance of cyclical sectors and the outperformance of defensive sectors (Utilities and Staples).
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
4:16 PM • Jul 4, 2024
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