Last week was a busy one on the data front, and for the most part the releases were mixed. The first regional PMIs for July showed the Empire Fed Index lower, but then the Philly Fed Index came in higher. We will have to wait for some of the other PMIs to come out this week to get a better sense of things. The biggest story in our minds was disappointing claims data. Continuing claims came in near cycle highs and at levels associated with recession risk in the past. Indeed, a 20% rise in continuing claims off their most recent lows has often been followed by a recession. Now, this is just one indicator, but it makes this data especially prescient in the current cycle. Keep an eye out for it on Thursday.

The Macro Week In Review

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