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- Macro Monday: Here Comes Election Season!
Macro Monday: Here Comes Election Season!
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
The Macro Institute
July 29, 2024
Election years always bring politics into the investing narrative. Surely, there have been years where the elections made a difference for financial markets but given the state of public finances in the U.S. either party is looking at some fiscal challenges. Can you really go on a major spending spree or broadly cut taxes with a deficit this large? It’s unlikely. One data series related to politics comes from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, which was released this past Friday. It provides data by political registration. It's clear that Republicans see the world a little differently than Democrats at this stage. That said, this dynamic was reversed when the Republicans controlled the White House. Time will tell if this series shifts dramatically come November. In the meantime, we look forward to our favorite week of the month with the release of the PMIs AND employment data.
The Macro Week Ahead
The Macro Week In Review
Macro Job Board
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A renowned hedge fund in the systematic trading/ quant finance space are looking to hire a quant PM in the Global Macro space with a live track record and strong quantitative background.
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Top Tweets From The Macro Institute
Not trying to be overly negative, but our job is to point out risks. When it comes to earnings there are plenty of series that look unusual. The decline in consumer confidence is disturbing, and since consumption makes up 68% of U.S. GDP, it plays an important role in earnings.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
2:23 PM • Jul 22, 2024
Massive week for earnings is underway!
It really picks up tomorrow with about 15% of the S&P 500's market cap reporting. Keep a close eye on guidance from cyclical companies.
— The Macro Institute (@MacroInstitute)
8:19 PM • Jul 22, 2024
I could only find China's M2 back to 1998, but this is the slowest growth rate we've seen in 26 years. This is not surprising given China's GDP is dominated by investments and the economy is marred with excess capacity. This is kryptonite for these types of economies.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
5:17 PM • Jul 24, 2024
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