- Macro Monday
- Posts
- Macro Monday: Job Numbers Steering Equities
Macro Monday: Job Numbers Steering Equities
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
The Macro Institute
August 19, 2024
For the second week in a row, we saw equities explode higher on the back of better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data. It's hard to overstate how rare this is. While there were other important data points last week (inflation, housing, etc.), it’s clear that financial markets are hyper-sensitive to labor market indicators at this time. This isn’t surprising in theory since we know that earnings are strongly correlated with employment statistics, but the degree and magnitude of this relationship is extraordinary. Next week is a little quieter on the data front, so we expect Initial Claims to have an outsized impact once again, one way or another.
The Macro Week Ahead
The Macro Specialist Designation (M2 SD)
Learn More Here: https://macrospecialistdesignation.com/
The Macro Week In Review
Macro Job Board
The Macro Research team focuses on the intersection between economics and financial markets across a wide class of assets including equities, rates, FX, credit, mortgages and commodities. We are seeking an experienced mortgage strategist to join the Structured Credit Research team in NY.
Work closely with our Equity Derivatives and Global Macro business partners (including sales, trading, structuring) and manage the content development, design and production process of marketing presentational materials (e.g. pitchbooks, presentations, brochures, factsheets, videos, websites, etc.) for institutional and corporate clients, intermediaries and end investors.
Seeking someone with a strong background in US macroeconomic events to work with our team in trading around news outcomes and possible macroeconomic scenarios. As a Macro News Analyst, your input will drive the positions we take and the ways we manage risk around news events.
Top Tweets From The Macro Institute
For those wondering if the last two weeks were random ... not likely. Volatility usually starts to pick about 2.5 years after the beginning of Fed tightening. It's not a perfect relationship, but if it was, we would be staring at higher volatility into the second half of 2025.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
1:09 PM • Aug 13, 2024
The reason the markets reacted so much to the July employment report is multi-fold. First off, we did trigger the Sahm Rule, which everyone expecting a soft landing is familiar with. It's not a perfect indicator, but its recession signal is hard to ignore.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
3:35 PM • Aug 13, 2024
Not sure this needs to be said, but it's Services that is holding up progress on inflation in the U.S. This is not surprising since Goods Inflation is heavily influenced by import prices, and the Trade-Weighted Dollar has been strong this year ... putting pressure on Goods CPI.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
3:39 PM • Aug 14, 2024
Have feedback? Simply reply to this email to tell us what you like and don’t like about Macro Mondays!