Macro Monday
Posts
Macro Monday: Looking Ahead To A Crucial Employment Report

Macro Monday: Looking Ahead To A Crucial Employment Report

The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer

The Macro Institute
September 03, 2024

There's a lot of important data out this week, but the focus will be on Friday's employment report. Last month the unemployment rate rose more than expected and triggered the Sahm Rule, which argues that a recession is now very likely. We've published countless charts that show the importance of employment for earnings, but this one helps to explain the dynamic at play now. It shows the link between company revenues and management's #1 reflex when conditions start to slow – layoffs! The number of companies concerned about weaker sales is growing, and the unemployment rate is higher as a result. When will this stop? It will stop when the slowdown is over, and a sustainable recovery takes hold. Realistically, we need rate cuts in the pipeline before we can even start thinking about that outcome. Keep an eye out for the employment component of the PMIs this week, and of course the August labor report on Friday at 8:30 am.

The Macro Week Ahead

The Macro Specialist Designation (M² SD)

Learn More Here: https://macrospecialistdesignation.com/

The Macro Week In Review

Macro Job Board

Director, Chief US Macro Strategist @ Blackrock (New York)

Reporting to the Head of Macro, this Economist will be a senior member of a small team globally responsible for conducting analysis of major economies and forming views about the future development of those economies.

Macro Strategies 2025 Intern @ Verition Fund Management (New York)

As part of the 10-week internship program, you'll work closely with a fixed income/macro investment team to enhance your skill set and apply your studies to a wide variety of projects. The program provides ample opportunities to learn about alternative investments, gain hands-on experience, and contribute meaningfully to a fast-growing firm.

Research Analyst, Global Macro @ Point72 (New York)

Conduct rigorous fundamental bottom up credit research to identify attractive long/short investment opportunities. This will entail credit analysis, financial modelling, documentation reviews, etc. Analyze businesses and capital structures across Distressed, High Yield, and High Grade credit markets.

Top Tweets From The Macro Institute

This helps explain why markets strongly bounced higher when Initial Claims data beat expectations in recent weeks. This always matters, but there is going to be greater focus on it in the wake of Fed tightening when investors debate the economic outlook and earnings uncertainty.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
5:18 PM • Aug 27, 2024

Following the most aggressive period of Fed tightening in recent history, the recession debate is at the forefront.
There's plenty of recession indicators, but most fall into three categories:
1. Gauges of Monetary Policy
2. Gauges of Consumer Stress
3. Gauges of Labor Market
— The Macro Institute (@MacroInstitute)
2:08 PM • Aug 28, 2024

This is data from the Conference Board shows that the post-pandemic housing dynamic is changing rapidly. Ironically, the meltdown in home purchasing plans coincided with a mortgage rate decline. While this may sound counterintuitive, it's pretty normal in past housing cycles.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
4:22 PM • Aug 28, 2024

Have feedback? Simply reply to this email to tell us what you like and don’t like about Macro Mondays!