- Macro Monday
- Posts
- Macro Monday: Gearing Up For A Rate Cut
Macro Monday: Gearing Up For A Rate Cut
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
The Macro Institute
September 09, 2024
The August employment report felt a bit like New Year's Eve. There was a lot of excitement going into it given last month's experience, but it was really a non-event. Yes, the unemployment rate ticked lower (not enough to negate the Sahm Rule), but downward revisions to the employment data in recent months are not exactly encouraging. We will have to wait a full month to see what happened with September's payrolls, but there will be lots to chew on for the markets before then. We have a Fed meeting this month (and likely rate cut) and the focus between now and then will be on leading indicators of employment, like continuing claims in the above chart. It tends to lead the unemployment rate by a couple quarters, so it is forward-looking and one to keep an eye on.
The Macro Week Ahead
The Macro Specialist Designation (M2 SD)
Learn More Here: https://macrospecialistdesignation.com/
The Macro Week In Review
Macro Job Board
Reporting to the Head of Macro, this Economist will be a senior member of a small team globally responsible for conducting analysis of major economies and forming views about the future development of those economies.
As part of the 10-week internship program, you'll work closely with a fixed income/macro investment team to enhance your skill set and apply your studies to a wide variety of projects. The program provides ample opportunities to learn about alternative investments, gain hands-on experience, and contribute meaningfully to a fast-growing firm.
Conduct rigorous fundamental bottom up credit research to identify attractive long/short investment opportunities. This will entail credit analysis, financial modelling, documentation reviews, etc. Analyze businesses and capital structures across Distressed, High Yield, and High Grade credit markets.
Top Tweets From The Macro Institute
The August employment report came and went. It was less dramatic than last month, but the trends have not changed much (see negative revisions to June/July). There are several real-time proxies of the unemployment rate, but one of my favorites is from the Conference Board.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
2:49 PM • Sep 6, 2024
Well we did a round trip on expectations for rate cuts in the last month. Looks a bit like the relative performance of semiconductors lately no? Four rate cuts ... I think it will take more than that to revive the economy when all is said and done. We shall see. Happy Thursday.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
6:11 PM • Sep 5, 2024
I've been thinking about this one a lot lately. It strikes me that investors have become super sensitive to any pullback in equities. We saw this a month ago when the S&P 500 was down single digits and many were calling for emergency rate cuts?!?
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
12:49 PM • Sep 5, 2024
Have feedback? Simply reply to this email to tell us what you like and don’t like about Macro Mondays!