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- Macro Monday: Incoming Housing Bounce? Not So Fast!
Macro Monday: Incoming Housing Bounce? Not So Fast!
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
The Macro Institute
September 16, 2024
All eyes will be on the Fed this week, but there are some key data releases that should not be ignored. We have the first read on September from the regional Philly Fed and Empire indices. We will also see what happened to housing starts in August AND how homebuilder sentiment has evolved with the NAHB also on deck.
There are more and more news stories about the coming Fed easing cycle and how it "should" revive the housing industry. Interestingly, intentions for home purchases dipped to a 10-year low in August according to the Conference Board. Note that this decline occurred despite lower mortgage rates, which is confusing for many investors. It's important to point out that a key component for housing is the state of the labor markets, and they have clearly lost steam in recent months. We might not see the anticipated bounce in housing starts and NAHB Index until we have stronger labor markets – and that might be a story for 2025 or beyond.
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Top Tweets From The Macro Institute
I see a $66 handle on oil prices on my screen as I write this up. Crazy to think that oil was trading at $83 a barrel as recently as late June. There is a lot to take in from this development, but at a high level this generally means two things.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
2:54 PM • Sep 10, 2024
The data on the consumer is somewhat mixed, which is not that unusual at a peak in the fed funds rate as we await the beginning of the easing cycle.
Here's one proxy of consumer sentiment that is concerning. This is the Performance Index from the Restaurant Industry Association.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
2:35 PM • Sep 11, 2024
The NFIB August survey came out this morning and it was not inspiring. This is what the earnings picture looks like for smaller businesses, or at least how they are reporting feeling about them. It is currently slightly lower than the depths of the pandemic, which is stunning.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
12:05 PM • Sep 10, 2024
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