There's a lot of important data out this week but given the Fed's new policy stance, the release of Core PCE should get an unusual number of eyeballs. Core inflation and wage inflation are closely related and very rarely diverge from one another for an extended amount of time. The best way to forecast either of these series is to look at gauges of labor market tightness like the Quit Rate from the JOLTS survey or the spread between job openings (demand) and unemployed workers (supply). There are many series like these, and they all argue for core/wage inflation to keep slowing for the foreseeable future. Time will tell what we get this month, but the trend is clearly to the downside. Also, make sure to look at the consumer sentiment releases this week as they are important for the earnings outlook.

The Macro Week Ahead

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