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Macro Monday: A Reason For Optimism?
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
We get quite a bit of data next week despite the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. New Home Sales on Tuesday will likely add another piece to the housing data puzzle and we also look forward to seeing the first set of revisions to Q3 GDP on Wednesday. Most series still reflect data or conditions prior to the election, so the Chicago Business Barometer might have some of our first insights on how the election has altered sentiment.
We got two regional PMI surveys last week: The Empire Fed Index (arguably the worst data set of regional PMIs) and the Philly Fed Index (best regional PMI). The latter was interesting because it declined AND failed to meet expectations, BUT the outlook component exploded higher. In essence, companies in the Philly Fed district still see current conditions as challenging but have gotten increasingly hopeful that better days lie ahead. Time will tell of course, but for now we don't have much to go on. Still, a divergence between current conditions and the outlook is rare for a series like this. That said, it's not like we have elections very often, so they are bound to create unusual data patterns from time to time.
The Macro Week Ahead
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What We Read This Weekend
Fiscal, Macroeconomic, And Price Estimates Of Tariffs
Turkey Costs Less This Thanksgiving As Prices Fall For Second Straight Year
The Delusions Behind A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
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