Macro Monday: Forecasting Earnings

The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer

Author

The Macro Institute
October 14, 2024

This is a busy week for data. We get the first October read on the economy with the Empire Fed (Tuesday) and the NAHB index (Thursday). There are also several housing-related series coming out that typically hold valuable clues to the state of consumer sentiment. However, Retail Sales and Industrial Production are where we're keenly focused this week. These two series typically trend in the same direction as S&P 500 earnings growth. It will be interesting to see if either show signs of slowing as forward earnings growth did last month. This information will be valuable as we head into the Q3 reporting season.

The Macro Week Ahead

The Macro Specialist Designation (M2 SD)

The Macro Week In Review

Macro To Micro

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP):

“China is a market where consumers are feeling a bit more constrained and we’re seeing that in our food business, although, we’re gaining share, we’re seeing a deceleration from double-digit to single-digit growth.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM):

“It’s possible that that’s a little bit a consequence of the cuts … we did see a pick-up in mortgage applications and a tiny bit of pick-up in refi. In our multi-family lending business, there might be some hints of more activity there.”

Fastenal Co. (FAST):

“The primary challenge remains sluggish end markets. The Purchasing Managers’ Index has been sub-50, indicating manufacturing contraction 22 of the last 23 months.”

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