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Macro Monday: A Market On Edge
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
It's clear that the July employment report rattled the markets. It certainly hyper-focused investors on employment stats. The best evidence of that was financial markets' reaction to the Initial Jobless Claims release on Thursday. I can't recall a time when claims moved the markets to that degree, but that's the world we operate in today. There are a lot of data releases on deck next week, including several inflation reports, but it feels like markets have already moved on from that topic. This week, keep a close eye on the regional PMIs – NY Empire Fed Index and the Philly Fed Index – and especially their employment components. Those reports also have the potential to rattle financial markets yet again.
The Macro Week Ahead
The Macro Week In Review

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Top Tweets From The Macro Institute
Yes, a spike in volatility is usually a sign that the economy is about to slow ... in this case it is "discounting" or "pricing" in an abrupt slowdown. We shall see. FT
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
5:27 PM • Aug 6, 2024
In my experience it's hard to know the exact cause of a one day, or even a weeklong, market move. Is it fear of a recession, or is it Japan, or is it a combination of both with a negative feedback loop? I suspect it is the latter, but who knows.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
12:44 PM • Aug 5, 2024
I know I sound like a broken record when I say "be careful what you wish for", but the Fed was never going to cut rates just for the hell of it. The odds of a recession went up in the mainstream over the last week and so did the odds of the Fed cutting rates.
— Francois Trahan, M²SD (@FrancoisTrahan)
4:33 PM • Aug 5, 2024
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