This is the best week of the month for data nerds like us! Yes, we are still in the thick of Q3 earnings season, but we also get loads of important data points including the monthly PMIs, the JOLTs report, which gives us an update on the number of job openings, and of course, the employment report for October. Most investors will be focused on the headline payroll figures, but the devil is often in the details when it comes to employment data. The nuggets that we’ll be analyzing are youth employment statistics, the mix of part-time to full-time jobs, and the share of government jobs in payrolls. The other key series to keep an eye on is Overtime Hours. As the chart illustrates, trends in Overtime Hours typically mimic those in S&P 500 Earnings growth. Given that we are halfway through earnings season, it might be the one indicator to focus on come Friday.

The Macro Week Ahead

The Macro Specialist Designation (M² SD)

Learn More Here: https://macrospecialistdesignation.com/

The Macro Week In Review

Macro To Micro

A.O. Smith Corp. (AOS):

“In China, we believe that the weakness we experienced in the market in the 3rd quarter will persist through the remainder of the year. While we are encouraged by the recently announced government stimulus programs, we expect minimal impact from the programs in 2024.”

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA):

“Hopefully a helpful macro trend is if there’s a decline in interest rates. This has a massive effect on the automotive demand because most people’s demand is driven by the monthly payment. Can they afford it monthly? I think most likely we’ll see continued decline in interest rates.”

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL):

“It certainly feels like we’re finally coming to the end of the cycle. We’ve got to go through these tough quarters, but we have finally seen some traction with respect to interest rates declining. We’re seeing better performance with our retail-related customers and continued weakness with our industrial-related customers.”

Macro Job Board

VP, Macro Hedge Fund Due-Diligence @ JP Morgan (New York)

Responsible for applying quantitative and qualitative skills, experience, and informed judgment to enhance the performance of client hedge fund portfolios. Will work within the manager research group on all aspects of manager sourcing, due diligence, and analysis of third party relative value and macro hedge funds.

Summer 2025 Macro Analyst Intern @ Susquehanna (Philadelphia)

You will be partnered with senior analysts and traders to assist in identifying investment opportunities in the equity and options markets. You will learn to perform in-depth company analysis around future catalyst events and provide real-time opinions on breaking news throughout the trading day.

Macro Systematic Trading Strategies Associate @ RBC (New York)

Review and evaluate existing strategies to develop cutting-edge, next generation products. Research and engineer differentiated Macro systematic trading strategies in collaboration with Sales, Quant, Research and Trading teams.

What We Read This Weekend

1. Harris, Trump Spending Would Both Boost The U.S. Debt

2. Narendra Modi And Xi Jinping Meet And Resolve A Border Row

3. Bond Trading Frenzy Risks Giving Market Makers False Sense of Security

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