Macro Monday: Softer Labor Markets Ahead?

The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer

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The Macro Institute
December 09, 2024

This week is Inflation Week, as we will see CPI, PPI, and import prices for November. We don't expect inflation to provide any major surprises this time around as commodity prices were mostly contained last month, and the unemployment rate remains near cycle highs (i.e., capping wage inflation). What we are looking forward to the most this week is the NFIB release on Tuesday. It is not typically a popular report, but it is chock full of amazing data and holds some of the best leading indicators of employment. Overall, the breadth of NFIB series points to softer labor markets in the near term, but Tuesday will help us understand whether that continue come 2025. Stay tuned.

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