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Navigating The Data Desert Through Proxies
The Macro Institute's Weekly Economic Primer
The Macro Institute
November 10, 2025
In partnership with
It’s now the longest government shutdown in history and there’s still no end in sight. For those of us in the data game, it’s inconvenient to say the least, but clearly not on par with the pain many Americans are experiencing. The only data point being released in the near term is the NFIB small business survey on Tuesday.
This is one of our favorite releases, but it’s still no replacement for the trove of government data we’ve been missing. The table above is one we put together a few weeks ago to find proxies of official government-produced data series. As you can see, the NFIB has a lot to offer.
Unfortunately, even when the shutdown comes to an end, it will still take time for folks at the BLS and other agencies to catch up on all that we've missed. Until then, keep an eye out for the NFIB on Tuesday.
The Macro Week In Review
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The Macro Week Ahead
💸 Bailouts & The AI-Shaped Economy
The most consequential headline last week came from OpenAI’s CEO, Sarah Friar, who suggested that the U.S. government should “backstop the guarantee that allows the financing to happen.” In plain terms, she proposed that taxpayers cover potential losses tied to AI-related investments. The company quickly attempted damage control, but the comment is both revealing and concerning.
When one of the largest players in the AI industry floats the idea of public support for private risk, it underscores growing questions about the underlying economics and long-term profitability of today’s massive AI infrastructure buildout.
The timing is notable. The Federal Reserve has only recently begun to acknowledge the structural problems of the “K-shaped” economy, where Wall Street continues to outperform Main Street, widening the divide between the “haves” and the “have-nots.”
In the context of this story, the “haves” are effectively long the AI trade through equity ownership, while the “have-nots” read about potential taxpayer-funded guarantees and grow understandably resentful. The idea of yet another implicit Wall Street bailout helps explain the populist undertones that have defined U.S. politics over the past decade.
Concerns about AI profitability and Friar’s comments weighed on equity markets late last week. The Technology Select Sector ETF (XLK) fell 4.2%, with NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom down between 5% and 9%. Normally, rising interest rates pressure high-multiple tech names, but this decline came even as short-term yields fell, highlighting just how fragile sentiment remains in the sector.
📆 The Week Ahead
As the government shutdown continues, no major federal economic data will be released this week. Betting markets currently assign:
⚫ 6% odds of a resolution between November 8–11
⚫ 31% odds between November 12–15
⚫ 63% odds of an agreement by November 16
With flight capacity already being reduced nationwide, worsening travel delays could become the political catalyst that finally forces bipartisan compromise.
This week’s only primary data release is the NFIB Small Business Index, a volatile but reliable directional indicator of small-cap earnings trends. The index spiked to three-year highs after the last election before retreating in response to new tariffs.
Last month, NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted:
“Optimism among small business owners decreased in September. While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations.”
Historically, small business sentiment runs more optimistic than regional PMI surveys, where tariff-related uncertainty continues to weigh on hiring and capital spending plans.
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