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This will be another strange week on the data front. Yes, the government shutdown is finally behind us, but we’re now in catch-up mode for a long list of overdue releases. It’s a bit odd to see data from both August and November hitting in the same week!

We’ll be monitoring all of it, of course, but the most consequential numbers will be the leading indicators for November, and there are several on deck. Monday brings the Dallas Fed Index, followed by the Richmond Fed Index and Conference Board Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, and then we’ll get the Chicago PMI on Wednesday. Together, these leading indicators should offer valuable insights into the state of the labor market.

An important note is that we will not see an official payroll report for October, as data collection was interrupted during the shutdown.

The Macro Week In Review

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The Macro Week Ahead

🌀 We're So Back ... Or Are We?

With the shutdown finally in the rearview mirror, we now find ourselves in catch-up mode, as delayed government data begins to trickle out. Last week brought the long-awaited employment report for September with a mixed bag of positives and negatives. The headline payroll gain of 119K came in well ahead of expectations, but the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.4% from 4.3%.

Alongside a few green shoots in the employment components of the regional ISM surveys, which are historically a leading indicator for labor markets, the data suggests that the job market continues to slow, though only modestly and not yet in a recessionary way.

In the meantime, policymakers continue to debate the appropriate stance ahead of the December 10th FOMC meeting. Chairman Powell reiterated that another rate cut is far from guaranteed. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan echoed that saying, “I would find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labor market will cool rapidly.”

On the other hand, Waller and Miran argue that weakening labor markets warrant additional accommodation. The result is a growing divide within the committee. Market expectations for a December rate cut have been extremely volatile, moving from 90% in late October to 22% after the October payroll cancellation, and back up to 68% as of last Friday following comments from John Williams, who noted he sees room for a near-term cut.

Unfortunately, both our job and the Fed’s job have been complicated by the BLS’s ongoing data cancellations and delays. Notably, October CPI was canceled, the October Labor report was canceled, and the November versions of these reports won’t be released until December 18th.

This means the Fed will head into its December 10 meeting without two months’ worth of two critical data series. This lack of visibility will likely reduce the odds of any policy change when the outlook is already so uncertain.

📆 The Week Ahead

With U.S. Thanksgiving on Thursday, we have a condensed, but busy week of data releases. Monday brings the Dallas Fed Index, followed by the Richmond Fed Index on Tuesday. The regional PMI data so far indicates a reacceleration in growth trends into year end, with the ISM Manufacturing Index potentially climbing back above the key 50 threshold (it last registered 48.7 in October).

We’ll be paying particular attention to the Consumer Confidence release this week, as sentiment data from the University of Michigan remain near cycle lows. Inflation and affordability challenges continue to weigh on optimism, even as financial market returns remain solid. This is the hallmark of a K-shaped economy, where Main Street continues to lag Wall Street.

Finally, on Wednesday we’ll get Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for October. Despite a slowing job market and declining confidence, the U.S. consumer has proven resilient this cycle, supported by stable employment and ongoing credit growth. With consumption accounting for roughly 68% of GDP, household spending remains the backbone of the U.S. economy. Until the labor market deteriorates more meaningfully, spending, and by extension, earnings and equities, should hold up.

Put simply: for consumer pessimism and the K-shaped dynamic to translate into real market consequences, we’ll need to see it show up in weaker spending trends. That makes this week’s PCE report the key data point to watch.

Macro Job Board

2026 Summer Intern, Global Macro @ Dalio Family Office (New York)

This 2026 summer internship position will conduct major research macroeconomic and market research projects, partner with the investment associate and leaders to synthesize findings in investment memos, and come up with new ideas and perceptions that drive the firm's research agenda. 

Senior Macro Strategist @ Barclays (New York)

In this role, you will serve as the sole G10 FX strategist based in our NYC office, working in close collaboration with your counterparts in the UK. You will monitor and review global macroeconomic developments, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, and translating these insights into actionable FX strategies.

2026 Summer Macro Analyst Intern @ Susquehanna (Philadelphia) 

You will be partnered with our senior analysts and traders to assist in identifying investment opportunities in the equity, index, and options markets. You will learn to perform in-depth company analysis around future catalyst events and provide real-time opinions on breaking news throughout the trading day.

What We Read This Weekend

💼 Immigration And Changes In Labor Force Demographics

📉 Immigration Can’t Explain Declining Employment Growth

☠️ Why Investors Are Increasingly Fatalistic