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Don’t have time to watch the whole video? Here’s 5 Key Takeaways:

🔹 Soft Data Is Usually Based On Surveys: Soft data series, such as the ISM Manufacturing Index or NFIB Small Business Index, are often surveys that measure how particular groups are feeling about their current and future economic prospects.

🔹 Hard Data Is Real, Quantifiable Economic Activity: Hard data series, such as CPI or the Unemployment Rate, reflect what has actually happened in the economy. Since these releases are backward-looking, they often lag real-time economic shifts.

🔹 Soft Data Is More Volatile Than Hard Data: Soft data has bigger swings than hard data. This makes sense since soft data is based more on emotions, which can change rapidly and are not necessarily tied to the economic reality.

🔹 Soft Data Tends To Lead Hard Data: Soft data tends to lead hard data, as emotions eventually affect decision-making. For example, a business owner concerned about future sales will probably stop or slow down their hiring.

🔹 Soft Data & Hard Data Do Diverge At Times: Divergences between soft and hard data are not uncommon. Sometimes feelings do not make their way into actual economic results. This can result in temporary breakdowns in these relationships.

Miss our last few videos? No worries. Check them out below 👇

1) Two Things Wall Street Analysts Get Wrong
2) The Truth About The U.S. Economy And The Dollar
3) How The Fed Impacts The Stock Market

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Macro Data Center

The Macro Week Ahead

📆 Last Week’s Data Key Takeaways

🔹 PPI Ran Hot & Core PPI Exploded to +0.8%: Headline PPI rose +0.5% in January (vs +0.3% forecast), +2.9% Y/Y. Core PPI surged +0.8% (vs +0.3% forecast), the largest monthly gain since mid-2025. This pushed the annual rate to 3.6%. This feeds directly into PCE calculations and makes the Fed's job harder.

🔹 Claims Remained Anchored Near Historic Lows: Initial claims rose 4,000 to 212,000 (vs 215K forecast), staying firmly below stress levels. Continuing claims fell 31,000 to 1.833M, which is among the lowest readings in ten months. The labor market continues to show a low-fire, low-hire pattern.

🔹 Consumer Confidence Rose But Stayed Depressed: The Conference Board index rose 2.2 points to 91.2, still well below the four-year peak of 112.8 hit in November 2024. The Present Situation Index fell 1.8 points as views on business conditions deteriorated. Expectations improved to 72.0, but remain below the 80 threshold that typically signals economic trouble.

🔹 Regional Fed Surveys Were Split: Four regional Fed manufacturing indexes painted a mixed picture. Philly Fed led at 16.3 (vs 8.5 forecast), a five-month high. KC Fed surprised at 5 (vs 2 forecast), snapping two months of flat readings. Dallas barely crossed into expansion at 0.2 from -1.2. Richmond was the outlier, sinking to -10 (vs -8 forecast) for its 12th straight month of contraction.

🔹 Home Prices Cooled As Real Values Turned Negative The FHFA HPI rose just +0.1% in December (+1.8% Y/Y). Case-Shiller National posted +1.3% Y/Y, which is the weakest full-year gain since 2011. Inflation has outpaced home prices from June onward, turning real returns negative.

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Macro Job Board

Macro Analyst @ Jane Street (New York)

Analyst will engage in detailed, technical discussions with traders and researchers by providing macro updates and quantitative analyses, presenting their logic and reasoning grounded in data, numbers, probabilities, and statistical insights, and addressing any follow-up questions with clarity and precision

Macro Credit Research Associate @ BlackRock (New York)

The Associate will work on a lean team to develop forward-looking investment views across global corporate credit markets, including private credit, leveraged loans, high yield, and investment grade. Must independently generate research ideas, translate complex market dynamics into insights, and deliver high-quality written content.

Quantitative Macro Researcher @ Millennium (New York)

This role will work closely with the Senior Portfolio Manager to develop systematic macro strategies, focusing on alpha research, including idea generation, data preprocessing, statistical analysis, back testing and implementation. Must independently explore and develop new alpha ideas while collaborating in a team oriented environment.

What We Read This Weekend

⚠️ America And Israel Bomb Iran, Aiming To Topple Its Regime

👋 Americans Are Leaving The U.S. In Record Numbers

🤖 How Emerging Countries Can Capitalize On The Demand For AI