Given the ongoing government shutdown, this will be another relatively light week on the data front. However, we do get several key releases from independent organizations. The NFIB report for October, due Tuesday, should offer valuable insights into labor markets, earnings trends, and capex intentions from the perspective of small businesses.

On Thursday, we’ll see the NAHB Index, which we often consider the PMI of homebuilders. Historically, trends in the NAHB tend to lead several key economic indicators, including Initial Jobless Claims. Based on that relationship, current readings suggest that Claims should remain soft in the coming months. Any improvement in the NAHB would be an encouraging signal in support of the economic recovery narrative.

We’ll also get updates to the NY Fed’s Empire Index on Tuesday and the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday. Both are useful regional gauges of manufacturing activity that will help round out the macro picture.

The Macro Week In Review

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The Macro Week Ahead

⏳ Government Shutdown Has No End In Sight

The U.S. government remained closed last week, halting the steady flow of economic data from key agencies. For macro practitioners, it’s been a quiet and somewhat disorienting stretch. Independent sources such as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey and the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumers were the only meaningful data points available.

In the Michigan survey, consumer expectations continued to fluctuate around levels consistent with recent months. Households remain burdened by high prices, weighing on demand for durable goods. The one-year inflation expectation held at an elevated 4.6%, while the New York Fed’s comparable measure registered slightly lower at 3.6%. Roughly 41% of respondents in that survey expect higher unemployment next year, which is near the upper end of the range since 2014.

So far, survey data shows little evidence that the government shutdown has meaningfully affected consumer spending. However, this new post-Liberation Day regime of business uncertainty appears to be pressuring capital expenditure plans among small businesses. The administration’s Friday announcement of potential additional tariffs on China will not be welcome news for business owners still dealing with the fallout from the first wave.

This matters. Capex is a key component of GDP, and growth in this category is increasingly concentrated among mega-cap firms and AI-related investments. It also matters because stock prices and consumer sentiment are tightly linked. Sentiment correlates closely with spending, the largest driver of GDP. If Friday’s 2.7% decline in the S&P 500 marks the first inning of renewed trade tensions and market volatility, the negative flow through weaker business investment, hiring, and spending could prove consequential for earnings and growth.

With that said, until we receive greater clarity from the White House, both monetary and fiscal settings still appear supportive of leading indicators for the business cycle over the medium term. The primary risks to the outlook stem from inflation, whether from tariff-related goods inflation or above-trend wage growth in a structurally tight labor market.

📆 The Week Ahead

With government releases still suspended, attention will turn to the NFIB Small Business Survey out on Tuesday morning. The optimism component of this report tracks closely with small-cap earnings, and last month’s results were strong across the board. “Optimism increased slightly in August with more owners reporting stronger sales expectations and improved earnings,” noted NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. Labor quality remains a persistent challenge for small firms, which is consistent with our theme of an inflationary U.S. recovery.

This week should help further define that recovery’s trajectory, beginning with our first look at October data via the Empire Fed Index on Wednesday at 8:30 am. The Philly Fed may suspend publication due to the shutdown, according to its website. September readings for both regional PMIs softened modestly month-over-month, but have generally trended higher this year, mirroring the ISM Manufacturing Index.

We’ll also get the NAHB Housing Market Index, a series that has been in the doldrums for some time. We expect another subpar October reading, though on a rate-of-change basis, the index may be starting to trough and show early signs of life out of its low-30s range. A rebound in housing would mark one of the earliest signs of a cyclical recovery.

Still, for housing fundamentals to improve meaningfully, survey data suggests mortgage rates would need to fall by 200 bps or more from current levels. Unfortunately, with numerous inflationary catalysts on the horizon, we do not believe that currently represents the base case.

Macro Job Board

Investment Associate, Global Macro @ Dalio Family Office (New York)

This position will serve on the Global Macro Team. Collaborating closely with Mr. Dalio on key initiatives, this small team conducts cutting edge macroeconomic and markets research. The research directly impacts the DFO’s investments, and much of it is published externally and read by the top policymakers and thinkers globally.

Senior Macro Strategist @ Barclays (New York)

In this role, you will serve as the sole G10 FX strategist based in our NYC office, working in close collaboration with your counterparts in the UK. You will monitor and review global macroeconomic developments, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, and translating these insights into actionable FX strategies.

2026 Summer Macro Analyst Intern @ Susquehanna (Philadelphia) 

You will be partnered with our senior analysts and traders to assist in identifying investment opportunities in the equity, index, and options markets. You will learn to perform in-depth company analysis around future catalyst events and provide real-time opinions on breaking news throughout the trading day.

What We Read This Weekend

🚧 America And China Return To Fierce Trade Conflict

🏠 Homeowners Are Pouncing On The Tiniest Drop In Mortgage Rates

🗽 The U.S. Really Is Two Economies In One