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Don’t have time to watch the whole video? Here’s 5 Key Takeaways:

🔹 The USD Has Been Strong Since The GFC: Despite the recent slump in the USD over the past year, the currency has been incredibly strong since the global financial crisis. This strength in part is because as globalization took hold, the dollar’s stability helped establish it as the global reserve currency.

🔹 Stronger USD = Lower Import Prices: There exists is an inverse relationship between U.S. import prices and the USD. When the dollar is strong, U.S. consumers can buy goods for relatively less USD. This means that a strong currency is generally a boon for consumption growth.

🔹 Weaker USD = Lower Export Prices: On the flip side, when the USD is weak, that generally leads to increased export growth. This is because U.S. goods become more competitive from a price perspective to consumers overseas.

🔹 The U.S. Economy Is Driven By Consumption: The U.S. has the widest gap of any country between its consumption component and its export component of GDP. Since nearly 70% of U.S. GDP is driven by consumption, a stronger dollar is generally more beneficial of the U.S.’s economic growth.

🔹 Export Strength Has Lead To GDP Contractions: Many of the previous economic contractions (negative GDP growth) in the U.S. were during periods when export growth was strong, but consumption growth was weak.

Miss our last few videos? No worries. Check them out below 👇

1) How The Fed Impacts The Stock Market
2) Why Is The Price Of Gold So Volatile?
3) Explaining The "No Hire, No Fire" Job Market

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Macro Data Center

The Macro Week Ahead

📆 Last Week’s Data Key Takeaways

🔹 CPI Delivered A Downside Surprise: January CPI rose just 0.2% monthly (vs. 0.3% expected), pulling the annual rate to 2.4% from 2.7%. Core CPI came in at 0.3% monthly and 2.5% (Y/Y), which was the lowest core reading since March 2021. Energy fell 1.5%, shelter rose a modest 0.2%, and egg prices dropped 7%.

🔹 Small Business Optimism Slipped & Uncertainty Surged: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped to 99.3 in January (vs. 99.9 forecast), which was still above its 52-year average of 98 for a ninth straight month. However, the Uncertainty Index spiked 7 points to 91, driven by doubts about expansion plans.

🔹 January Payrolls Crushed Expectations, But Revisions: Nonfarm payrolls rose 130,000 (nearly double the 70,000 consensus). and Unemployment ticked down to 4.3%. The real bombshell: the annual benchmark revision slashed 2025 job growth from +584,000 to just +181,000. This means the economy averaged only 15,000 jobs/month last year instead of 49,000.

🔹 Inflation Expectations Cooled: The NY Fed's one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 3.1% from 3.4% in December, which is the lowest in 12 months. However, households reported worsening financial condition expectations and declining credit availability expectations.

🔹 Existing Home Sales Plunged: Sales fell 8.4% to an annualized 3.91 million in January, which is the sharpest drop in nearly four years. This erased December's surge to a three-year high and badly missing the 4.18 million consensus. Inventory fell to 1.22 million units (3.7 months' supply), while median price came in at $397K.

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Macro Job Board

Macro Analyst @ Jane Street (New York)

Analyst will engage in detailed, technical discussions with traders and researchers by providing macro updates and quantitative analyses, presenting their logic and reasoning grounded in data, numbers, probabilities, and statistical insights, and addressing any follow-up questions with clarity and precision

Macro Credit Research Associate @ BlackRock (New York)

The Associate will work on a lean team to develop forward-looking investment views across global corporate credit markets, including private credit, leveraged loans, high yield, and investment grade. Must independently generate research ideas, translate complex market dynamics into insights, and deliver high-quality written content.

Quantitative Macro Researcher @ Millennium (New York)

This role will work closely with the Senior Portfolio Manager to develop systematic macro strategies, focusing on alpha research, including idea generation, data preprocessing, statistical analysis, back testing and implementation. Must independently explore and develop new alpha ideas while collaborating in a team oriented environment.

What We Read This Weekend

🏠 Gen Z, Locked Out of Home Buying, Puts Its Money in the Market

🤖 Where Is A.I. Taking Us?

🐣 Logan Paul's Pokémon Card Smashes Record in $16M Sale