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Don’t have time to watch the whole video? Here’s 5 Key Takeaways:

🔹Understanding PMIs Is A Necessity For Investors: Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) are great leading indicators of future economic trends because they measure subtle changes occurring in the early stages of the economic supply chain. We specifically like to use the ISM Manufacturing Index.

🔹There Is A Strong Link Between Stocks & The ISM New Orders Index: The ISM New Orders Index and stock market returns have been strongly correlating dating all the way back to the mid-1940s. This makes sense given they are both a part of the Leading Economic Indicators.

🔹The ISM Can Help Shape Equity Market Leadership: Trends in the ISM New Orders Index can help investors analyze dynamics in equity market leadership. At the same time, we can use performance trends in various sectors and styles (equity leadership) to help us understand trends in the business cycle.

🔹U.S. Bond Yields Typically Move Higher When PMIs Improve: U.S. bond yields have also become tightly correlated with trends in PMIs, like the ISM New Orders Index, across time. This makes sense intuitively since bond yields are essentially a real-time proxy of economic expectations.

🔹The ISM Is A Proxy Of Countless Other Data Series: Earnings revisions, stock ratings, market breadth, volatility, financial risks, emerging markets, and commodities are just some of the series that trend alongside the ISM. This is largely due to the fact that the ISM New Orders Index is a proxy for economic growth.

Miss our last few videos? No worries. Here are some of the most popular 👇

1) Will Core Inflation Spike Alongside Headline Inflation?
2) Three Housing Charts You NEED To Monitor
3) How To Become An Effective Stock Picker

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Macro Data Center

The Macro Week Ahead

📆 Last Week’s Data Key Takeaways

🔹 GDP Growth Rebounded, But Inflation Surged: Q1 GDP grew at a +2.0% annualized rate (vs +2.3% forecast), a significant acceleration from Q4 2025's +0.5% pace. However, the PCE deflator jumped to 4.5%, more than double the Fed's target. This reflected the oil-driven inflation surge from the Iran war.

🔹 PCE Inflation Heated Up, But Core Held Steady: Headline PCE rose +0.7% M/M and +3.5% Y/Y in March, with the increase driven largely by gas prices, which are now above $4 a gallon. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, rose a more modest +0.3% M/M and +3.2% Y/Y, both of which were in line with consensus.

🔹Fed Held Rates Steady, But Dissents Hit A 33-Year High: The FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting in Powell's final meeting as Chair. The 8-4 vote marked the first time since October 1992 that four officials dissented, with Miran preferring a 25 bps cut while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan opposed the easing bias in the statement.

🔹 Housing Painted A Mixed Picture: March housing starts surged +10.8% M/M to 1.50M (vs 1.40M forecast). However, the leading indicator, building permits, collapsed -10.8% M/M to 1.372M, the largest decline since November 2022. Multifamily permits were hit especially hard, cratering -23.5%.

🔹 Manufacturing Held, But Prices Paid Hit A 4-Year High: The ISM Manufacturing Index registered 52.7 in April (vs 53.2 forecast), marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion. New Orders rose to 54.1 and supplier deliveries lengthened to 60.6. However, the Prices Paid index vaulted +6.3 pts to 84.6, the highest since April 2022.

Macro Job Board

 Macro Strategist @ Bloomberg (New York)

This role will join a global team of experienced strategists and editors who combine sophisticated macro analysis, speed and news judgment to deliver a 24/7, real-time product. They will construct frameworks to translate the most pertinent themes into actionable insights across asset classes.

U.S. Macro Trader @ Wellington Management (Boston)

This role will focus on execution of orders across a global book of business with an emphasis on Foreign Exchange (FX), Global Rates, or Commodities. This is an execution role, but there is significant opportunity and expectation to add value to client portfolios through collaboration with portfolio managers and analysts.

Quantitative Macro Researcher @ Millennium (New York)

This role will work closely with the Senior Portfolio Manager to develop systematic macro strategies, focusing on alpha research, including idea generation, statistical analysis, back testing, and implementation. Must independently explore and develop new ideas while collaborating in a team-oriented environment.

What We Read This Weekend

💸 Fed Officials Cite Inflation Concerns In Defending Dissents

✂️ Ray Dalio Says Kevin Warsh Shouldn’t Cut Rates In A ‘Stagflation’ Era

🤖 Anthropic Weighs Funding Offers At Over $900 Billion Valuation